Tungsten Ore Prices May Become Key Window into Geopolitical Dynamics
Overview
Since the resumption of work following the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday, tungsten prices have surged at an almost daily pace. According to the latest data (as of around March 10, 2026), the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate has surpassed the RMB 1 million per metric ton threshold, ammonium paratungstate (APT) is quoted at RMB 1.45 million per ton, and tungsten powder has reached a high of RMB 2.3 million per ton. Since the start of 2026, tungsten prices have surged over 110%. Tracking back to early 2025, the cumulative increase approaches 600%, marking one of the most dramatic strategic metal rallies in recent years.
The core drivers behind this surge are the extreme tightness in upstream tungsten concentrate supply and the strategic revaluation of China’s position as the global tungsten powerhouse. This has fundamentally reshaped the market landscape, creating a pronounced seller’s market. The smelting segment has strengthened in tandem, driven by rapid cost pass-through and resonance with international prices.
Chinese powder metallurgy enterprises are universally confronting sharply elevated production and operational costs, compelling them to issue frequent price increase notices. Actual transactions predominantly adopt a “back-to-back” model (i.e., purchasing immediately upon sale, with virtually no inventory risk exposure). Some financially strained SMEs have significantly reduced procurement volumes or even suspended order acceptance. The scrap tungsten market fluctuates sharply between “locking in profits” and “hoarding for higher prices,” with transaction activity remaining volatile.
On the supply side, objective resource constraints combined with subjective reluctance to sell have jointly created a persistently tight supply structure in the tungsten market, providing strong support for sustained high prices. China’s tightening tungsten mining quotas, stricter environmental regulations, and limited mine operating capacity, coupled with slow and uncertain expansion of overseas production capacity, have exacerbated supply constraints. Simultaneously, geopolitical risks and the revaluation of strategic metals have amplified market sentiment, further reinforcing tungsten’s strategic importance as a “war metal” and critical raw material for high-tech applications.
However, elevated prices have also imposed significant pressure on the industrial chain: capital tied up across segments has surged, cash flow sensitivity has markedly increased, inventory turnover has slowed, and downstream demand absorption capacity faces challenges. Some end-users have begun showing signs of caution or reduced procurement, leading to diminished smoothness in supply chain transmission.
Today Tungsten Ore Price
Tungsten industry research institutions advise market participants to closely monitor the following key variables, which are likely to become core indicators for the next phase of market trends:
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China’s domestic policy developments: Total control of tungsten ore mining, export compliance reviews, and further adjustments to the list of key mineral controls;
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Actual strength of downstream demand: Whether the real pull from sectors like photovoltaics, new energy, semiconductors, and defense is sustainable;
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Efficiency of the scrap tungsten recycling system: Whether improved domestic scrap recovery rates can partially alleviate pressure from primary ore;
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Pace of international supply replenishment: Commissioning progress of overseas mining projects (e.g., in South Korea, Vietnam) and timing of initial concentrate deliveries;
Geopolitical and macroeconomic environment: External variables including escalating global conflict risks, strategic reserve actions for critical minerals by major economies, and efforts to “de-China-ize” supply chains.
The current tungsten market has entered a new phase characterized by high risk and high volatility, with increasingly pronounced “easy-up, hard-down” price dynamics—prone to upward movements but resistant to significant corrections. Industry players must strike a dynamic equilibrium between strategic resource reassessment and capital chain pressures, closely monitoring shifts in these observation windows to better navigate risks and opportunities.
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