Is the Current Tungsten Market More Like a Psychological Battle?
Introduction
The tungsten market is currently in a very delicate “standoff phase.” It is a tug-of-war between “resources being king” and “weak demand.”
Combining current macroeconomic data with the industry context, here is an in-depth analysis of the market dynamics:
1. Prices are fluctuating at “million-level” highs
The current price of tungsten concentrate has firmly settled above CNY 1 million per ton. Compared to the CNY 140,000 per ton level at the beginning of 2025, this increase is staggering. The “stability” observed on March 18 is, in fact, a pause at these elevated levels following a sharp rally.
Black Tungsten Concentrate (≥65%): Quotes remain stable at around CNY 1.03 million per ton.
Ammonium Paratungstate (APT): Holds steady at the high of CNY 1.45 million per ton.
2. Why Are Raw Material Suppliers “Reluctant to Ease Up”?
The statement in the article that “raw material suppliers are reluctant to ease up” is underpinned by three key factors:
Quotas and Environmental Regulations: China’s domestic tungsten mining quotas will be further tightened in 2026. Combined with routine environmental inspections in major producing regions (such as Jiangxi and Hunan in China), this has led to a sharp decline in spot market supply.
Reassessment of Strategic Value: As global attention on the security of critical minerals grows, holders generally believe that tungsten—as the “teeth of industry” and a “war metal”—has yet to fully realize its strategic premium, leading to strong reluctance to sell.
Mining Costs: As ore grades at older mines decline, the costs of mining and processing tungsten per ton are rising.
3. Signs of a “Rebound” in the Scrap Tungsten Market
This is a detail worthy of close attention. The recovery in scrap tungsten prices indicates:
Easing of Risk-Aversion Sentiment: When prices surged earlier, some recyclers, fearing a market crash, rushed to sell off their inventory (selling pressure); now that prices have stabilized at high levels and the market has realized they “cannot fall further,” they have resumed hoarding.
Substitution Effect: When primary ore (concentrate) becomes too expensive or unavailable, downstream smelters increase their procurement of scrap and waste materials, thereby supporting scrap tungsten prices.
4. Core Tension: Fear of High Prices vs. Essential Demand
The current market dynamic hinges on the following:
Upstream: “I have ore; I’m in no rush to sell—prices will rise further.” Downstream: “Orders haven’t picked up yet, and costs are too high. I’ll only buy what I need for today (essential demand)—I won’t stockpile a single extra ton.”
This “double whammy of supply and demand” has led to shrinking transaction volumes, plunging the market into a wait-and-see phase characterized by “prices without transactions.”
Recommendations from Industry Experts
The current tungsten market is a psychological battle.
If you are a downstream buyer: We recommend maintaining a “back-to-back” trading model—purchasing raw materials only after receiving finished product orders—to avoid the risk of inventory depreciation, as prices are currently at historically high levels.
If you are a seller: You should monitor the upcoming April announcement of new long-term contract prices and shifts in the international geopolitical landscape, as these could serve as catalysts to break the current deadlock.
Learn more about pricing details for tungsten products
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